Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
